The release of radon gases three days PRIOR to the May 11 Japan earthquake triggered changes in the atmosphere over Japan. It's early but this may be a warning signal to predict future quakes, says not-yet-published research by California scientists. The atmosphere above the epicenter of the March 11 earthquake in Japan underwent UNUSUAL CHANGES in the days leading up to the disaster, according to preliminary data.
The theory, which could move us forward in predicting quakes, is called "Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism." Right before an earthquake, the stressed fault releases more gases, especially the colorless, odorless radon gas. Once in the upper-atmosphere ionosphere, the radon gas strips air molecules of their electrons, splitting them into negatively charged particles (the free electrons) and positively charged particles. These charged particles, called ions, attract condensed water in a process that releases heat. And scientists can detect this heat in the form of infrared radiation.
Using satellite data, researchers looked at what the atmosphere was doing in the days before the Japanese quake. They found that the concentration of electrons in the ionosphere increased in the days before the earthquake, as did infrared radiation. March 8, three days before the quake, was the most anomalous day. The researchers have crunched data for more than 100 quakes in Asia and Taiwan, and have found similar correlations for earthquakes with magnitudes bigger than 5.5 and depths less than 31 miles (50 kilometers). The team is now working to involve researchers in Japan and worldwide, as ambitious atmosphere monitoring will take international effort. Nonetheless, the success of earthquake forecasting is far from guaranteed. No one has ever predicted an earthquake from atmospheric data, and plenty of supposed earthquake precursors, from weird animal behavior to groundwater flowing the wrong way, have proven hit-or-miss.
To iron out the usefulness of the atmospheric approach, you'd need to look at lots of earthquakes over time to make sure the phenomena is statistically linked with fault ruptures. You'd also want to know how often these atmospheric anomalies show up without an associated quake. Earthquake scientists have been "burned enough times in the past" and so have learned not to get excited about every potential prediction method. But plans are underway to put together a workshop between earth scientists and atmospheric scientists this summer to discuss the research on the ionosphere changes. "
**It's all fun and games until someone loses an eye...
then it becomes a scavenger hunt.** |
