Aberdeen International (AAB.TO AABVF),
I just listened to the portfolio update call. The portfolio value was down a bit for Q1, as I guesstimated, and my guesstimate is that so far for Q2 it is down a bit more. Still the the portfolio is valued at 1.37 CAD plus there are their royalties, which were valued at around 0.14 CAD last quarter. The stock is trading at only 0.78 CAD.
Thus, the stock is still trading a big discount to NAV with lots of potential upside (privates going IPO, incentive warrants marked at 0, etc), and I like the management team. The Q1 quarterly call update was upbeat and to me they are doing all the right things, including a normal course issuer bid.
I have a decent-sized position and am looking to build an overweight position.
That being said, the results of this Peruvian election could impact their major holding in Sulliden. Management is confident in the value regardless of the election, but the election could lead to significant volatility in this highly overweighted holding and thus volatility in Aberdeen itself.
Also, my mining investor friend talks about the seasonality of precious metals and miners, mentioning that the weak period runs through August and that it might be better to hold off buying to get a better entry opportunity.
Anyway, I have seen a seasonality chart, and it looks pretty impressive with noticeable summer doldrums and a big spike up in Sep-Oct. However, certain seasonal factors (such as Indian gold buying) seem to be less and less important nowadays. Do any of you subscribe to this seasonality and believe it will continue going forward?
Did anyone actually read this far??? :)
Thanks,
MC |
