THC -
You ask tough questions.
Here goes nothing ...
BIOX
(1) All the TA signs on BIOX are bad.
(2) There is at least 1 (maybe more) good TA'ers on SI that
are following BIOX and know they may be looking at
a short opportunity down to the 28.50 level.
(3) I live by Revenue and Earnings growth, but I always pay
attention to TA - i.e. I respect it.
(4) The ONLY point of my message was to notify my fellow
threaders to this possibility if their portfolio was
in part on margin.
My real message was:AT ALL COSTS PROTECT YOUR
OWNERSHIP IN BIOX - and adjust the rest of your
portfolio accordingly.
Why? Because by 3rd Q98, if my P&L holds, we are looking
at $60.00 to $100.00 share, and the then present PE
ratio won't matter. Everyone will be looking
at the overall size of the market SYNVISC is selling into
and the subsequent growth rates into the next millenium (sp?).
Add to that a stock split, Shi* its going to be wonderful.
I grant you, to varying degrees we all go down if the
market goes down, but if you invest - and there is a
subsequent crisis in Asian markets - BIOX becomes
a safe haven - if there is a stock split and subsequent
higher float.
Now back down to earth ....
(5) If a short attack comes, its over by 4th qtr. earnings
report. See my Dec. P&L.
No short can fight +1.80 this year and +2.20 next year.
Again, the # of shares outstanding becomes an issue to
some funds that will want to buy in.
(6) I was shocked at Friday's volume. 13,000 shares.
That is a STUNNINGLY low number. <BG>
Shorts would have to tread lightly on that kind of volume.
Note: I am not talking about TRADERS.
(7) If BIOX went to 28.00 I would ask BIOX mgt. to seriously
consider buying 100/200 (000) shares.
It would stir things up.
And ONLY the shorts would get killed.
ANIK
(1) As you know, I am obstinate and stupid. I still have
big $$$ in NPRO and am currently getting killed.
Nonetheless, I can't let it go. I hate BMY.
If I wasn't in this dumb phase of mine, ANIK -
it seems to me - is a GREAT BUY.
Your risks are (1) FDA approval (2) AHP has at most
a 6 month lead.
What is most important is PLEASE go back to my quarterly
P&L.
For all of 1998 I am projecting a PENATRATION RATE
of SYNVISC of only 1.93% - and they earn almost
$70 mil. in revenues.
All things being equal - DITTO for ANIK.
DEPO
(1) I have been long ( less than 2,000 shares ) at about
17/18 share.
(2) To my mind, this a done deal.
(3) Remember in this kind of market (Asian turmoil) if you
don't have EARNINGS - YOU SUCK.
I don't know at what point of 1998, their EPS turns +.
Regards,
John
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