Correct me if I'm wrong. The USB modem is a strong idea, since the people who will want ASDL are probably people who are going to have USB buses. With Windows 98 about to hit the shelves and Slot 1 architecture promising upgradability, you'll see a fair amount of upper-end home computer buyers getting all-new PCs. They will be the logical market for ASDL and will definitely want a USB modem. Personally, I will wait until I see who is the first to offer me decent broadband before I get a new system, and expect to get a USB modem to fit the broadband technology I can get at my house. And I'm not talking ISDN, I'm waiting for the next generation.
As far as basic technology, this isn't my area, but Aware's "splitterless" and DWMT system seems like a very good contender and somewhat superior to Alcatel's overall approach to this. But I don't know about USB modem compatibility -- I can't imagine getting a modem to run through the USB is going to be THAT big an issue.
The ROBC's have obviously completely lost their minds, risking giving this market to cableco's and even wireless companies. But their logical choice is going to have to include USB modem compatibility, otherwise they're going to have another ISDN debacle on their hands. At something like $500 to $1000 per customer, they have to get it right and I can't imagine that they would be stupid enough to capitalize a system than isn't supported at the user end by a USB modem.
So, here's my thought, please feel free to comment/correct. 1) Assuming the ROBC's are going to come to their senses and hop on xDSL, they will demand proof of a good efficient USB modem system for use by the consumer, which is compatible with the technology of the system they adopt, 2) Alcatel, having an operational USB modem in place, would beat Aware unless Aware demonstrates an affordable and efficient USB modem, 3) because of USB, this won't have to include a lot of compatibility with other devices, e.g. video card, 4) If Aware does demonstrate such a modem, they should be the favorite in head-to-heads with Alcatel because of lower cost and simplicity with good noise control. So - when and how hard will it be for Aware to show support of USB devices?
PS Tan nice post, I pray your posts will always be as informative and this thread will never devolve into personal attacks, finger-pointing, accusations of market manipulation against money managers, idiot cheerleading, and calls for posters to demand delivery of stock certificates to thwart short interest! |
