Ted & G-zero...
I re-read my post and I'd just like to try it again as I think I can do better. To anyone who is tired of seeing this.. sorry... this is my last stay on top of the soap box as it where regarding this subject..
So... here we go....
The coin does not have a memory. It thus has the same statistical odds each and every time it is flipped irregardless what it did the past 8 or past 9 million times. Since it is possible to land and stay on edge, it is a viable component of the odds equation. The odds thus are not 50/50 when every factor is taken into account. Its so astronomical that we don't even consider it as part of the odds calculation but it does exist.
Sort of like roulette. you can bet back or red which is a 50/50 bet until you take into consideration the dreaded "00". The odds not good on it hitting this number but unlike a coin landing on edge, at least Vegas as Vegas always does, takes it into consideration when calculating the odds.
As with the glass of water. Some would say half full or half empty but as one searches, as with the coin landing on it's edge , there can be another answer ... that of the glass just being to big.
These are valid concepts to start with when talking Gann theory. Today's Conventional Gann Theory only calculate the obvious within the framework. 2 dimensional thinking as it where. But don't we live in a 3D world?
. But as all who use Gann's methods today know, we find only limited success implementing Gann as presented in today's conventional form.
One soon realizes that for Gann there had to be more. And there is . There is the 3rd element. It is another part of the equation that conventional Gann teaching of today either disregards as irrelevant as a coin landing on edge or is it just that Gann didn't tell anyone about it.? Ahhhhh. like Ben Hogan's magic move. he tells much but never told all.. Did Gann take his 3rd element. the missing part of the puzzle with him to the grave? I think he did. yet. he gives us clues to decipher it threw his charts and his journals.
Lets define what we are missing.
. This 3rd element is the human element of emotion. As both you and GZ so well pointed out, GREED and FEAR move markets. GZ .. emotion cannot be dismissed for sure.
Gann I believed thought if he could isolate, find , measure, and thus predict the cause and effect this 3rd element . the mystery of tomorrow could be calculation. My god. what a quest!
What made him the genius he was is that I am convinced he found it.!
He knew that when measuring PAST HISTORICAL DATA utilizing any numerical method, the data already contains that hidden 3rd element. In some fashion or form, yesterdays price was influenced by and within it reflected within its numbers he human emotional factor skew due to the emotion surrounding the market that day.. The key Gann finally concluded that Fibbonacci for instance did not, was that of the human emotion was influenced by the basic elements of nature. If it could effect the historical data of yesterday and the day before, it would surely be a determining factor in tomorrows market again..
. Any future prediction without it would to be flawed at best.
THE KEY WAS,
If it could not be measured it could not be reliably predictable. It had to somehow be a repeatable condition cycle as it where to be measurable. If the element was found to be totally random... it could never be measured.
Gann was not the first to touch on this idea. But.. all but Gann finally gave up concluding that emotion, human emotion is random. It had no definitive pattern. Logical???
( Well tell that to my wife once a month when it comes to her PMSJ) No slam meant. but it is a good prelude to where I'm going with this. I can predict human emotion once a month here at home like clockwork and I'm no astrologerJ
Gann was essentially a grain trader in his day. There were no S&Ps or D-Mark to trade.
Gann saw how the influences of nature dramatically effected the price of grain. Drought, floods, storms, seasons that were early or late but always there.. Gann I believe saw that the factors that caused people to over or under react during the trading day were possibly tied to the same forces of nature that effected the seasons themselves. I believe he began to see everything around him being cyclical in nature.. If they were cyclical they repeated. If it repeated it could be measured and if measured predicted.
Thus BINGO... he had the 3rd missing part of the equation. Now he only had to FIND, MEASURE AND MAP it.
Cases in point:
The tides go in and out yet what clock do they follow to know when to do so?
Birds migrate north and south. How do they know when to leave? What causes millions of them to make the same decision at approximately the same time?
Fish swim up stream to spawn.. How do they know when to do so? Again. and have it be a total commitment by all in species?
Comets come and go ever 100 years like clockwork.. How does Haley's comet know to come back around earth ever couple hundred years?
The seasons know when to change and how often to stay. We get 4 not 2 each and ever year and that year is measured within a repeatable frame of sort
If these forces of nature dictate the actions of all around us, form the planets, weather and animals, is it practical to assume it still is only random when talking about man himself?Why is man so immune to it all.? Let's get real!! Yet. conventional logic pounds into us that emotional influences in today's markets are pure happenstance. They are just a grouping of total random events that are unable to be accurately measured or calculated in any predictable form.
Poppycock!!!
I believe that Gann saw the universe as one repeatable, predicable big clock of which man and his emotions could be mapped , measured and timed like the swallows coming back to Capestrono:-)
When calculating your next median point... what if you had the 3rd part of the equation which would tell you which it would BOUNCE off rather then just move on to the next?
Now whether you feel this is all-valid or not is another question to itself. My education in Astronomy is rudimentary at best.
Let me finish that ASTEONOMY as an indicator all to itself is total nonsense.
I will repeat.... Total nonsense!!!
If however your using conventional mathematical measuring methods within the framework of technical analysis that rely solely on past numerical measures of movement your trying to measure apples to find oranges.
This historical data of yesterday included the human element(APPLES).
To predict tomorrows actions but using yesterdays emotion number or no emotion number at all is strictlly (ORANGES).
In essence..that element, though measurable, IS NOT the same as it was yesterday. Thus it will skew your equation without it
Ever notice how sometimes it works right on the number yet some days your calculations are way off.
I think this is not random happenstance. It is due to the 3rd element happening to be about the same for a time and thus your formula does not become as skewed
BUT....
I hope this post presents my point better. I hope it is easier to understand.
Maybe it even makes some sense to some. |
