solar gross margins:
2010,1Q11,company:
46% 46% FSLR
33% 27% YGE
31% 27% TSL
29% 26% JKS
23% 20% SPWRA
22% 17% JASO
22% 30% LDK (estimate; they still haven't reported)
21% 16% HSOL
17% 19% STP
15% 15% CSIQ
comments: Margins mostly fell, or at best held steady. Given that ASPs continue to fall, and at a rate much greater than the decline in manufacturing costs, I expect 2Q11 margins will be lower than 1Q11. There may be individual exceptions, but the overall trend is down.
In 2Q11, there may be some benefit for some companies (and harm to others), due to lower poly prices. This depends on what fraction of their business comes from poly.
LDK's higher gross margins are probably due to the reasons discussed in this article
seekingalpha.com and isn't good news. They estimate GM 24-29% for full year 2011. If they hit the top end of that range, they will greatly improve their rankings on the list. I doubt it happens. I don't expect LDK, or anyone else, to improve YOY gross margins in 2011.
Otherwise, the rankings didn't change much. FSLR remains far in the lead, with YGE, TSL, and JKS in the second tier, and everyone else well below them.
It will be a lot easier to compare numbers, once all these companies are fully vertically integrated. The ones that aren't yet, are trying to get there as fast as they can.
The rest of 2011 should provide an excellent "stress test" for solar companies, allowing investors to pick the winners. During good times, even poorly managed companies with non-viable business plans can look good.
If anyone is aware of any other interesting companies we should follow, let me know. |
