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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (613056)5/26/2011 2:27:45 AM
From: i-node1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 1582945
 
>>>. Does it look like some significant changes are occurring in our climate? Yes.

How does one who is 50 or even 100 years old draw any conclusion at all based on what it 'looks like'? Weather patterns evolve over much longer periods?

In video poker the probability of making a royal flush is about 1:40000. Yet, I know someone who had 4 in the course of maybe 1000 hands (one night). Then, not to see another over three years of heavy play.

It really has little to do with trends. And a lot to do with statistical variance. The statistical variance in the probability of weather events can undoubtedly be very high. The result is that looks are meaningless. Just like it looks to a video poker player that she is on a winning streak.
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