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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Rational who wrote (8099)11/16/1997 1:01:00 PM
From: tekgk  Read Replies (1) of 18056
 
Sankar,

>> What will other governments do, given that they are selling their gold reserves

I think that gold does not matter much at these prices. Total CB gold holdings are only worth 331 billion (34,000+- tones) - nothing compared to the trillions in treasury paper, 60 trillion in derivatives, 10's of trillions in world stock markets ... noise level at best. Gold only matters if there was a sudden loss of faith in the dollar.

>> US will be the loser because at this time most Central Banks hold more US Treasuries than other govt Treasuries

I agree - add in the fact that we need external money to finance the current account/trade deficits and we have some very real problems ahead of us.

>> I do not see a boom in other stock markets; but no further down-turn.

I agree the boom is over, that's easy. The hard question is the no further down-turn -g-
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