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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: John Hunt who wrote (8100)11/16/1997 1:40:00 PM
From: Rational  Read Replies (4) of 18056
 
John,

I expect the dollar to go down and the US over-night (repo) interest rate to inch up as the Japanese sell their US Treasuries (like the HK Central bank did). There will be jitters in the US market's interest rate sensitive stocks. I do not think, on Thursday, Greenspan knew of the Japanese plan to sell US Treasuries, when he commented about the minimal impact of SE Asian turmoil on the US economy. He correctly assumed that SE Asian Central Banks' selling US Treasuries could do no harm to US dollar. Further, he correctly noted that SE Asian currency problem has stabilized and that US businesses will have minimal effect. This lifted the tech stocks on Thursday and Friday.

The Japanese have to prop up their banks' balance sheets to have them continue international banking by improving their precipitously fallen capital levels. The BOJ cannot reduce the interest rate below 1.5% (?) to return profitability to Japanese banks. Japanese will have to sell a lot of their $800 bil US Treas, before Wed, to ensure that their banks' capital levels are OK. This is a real threat to to US$.

Sankar
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