Wink: Well you agree with me but somehow this agreement makes me want to move to Jeffrey Bash's view -g-. Seems like you follow a lot of areas, but for the purpose of dancing in and out them. You're a short term trader in speculative stocks in complicated areas. Sigh... but if such methods work for you over an extended time period, then you must have the skills, flexibilty, etc. I'll find out more as I read through Hulbert's review of newsletters that apparently do this successfully also. It seems like you are spending the time and effort to learn about a lot of industries (which is IMO do-able and which I think I try to do), but then you go and shoot for 15% profit (which seems too small, given the expenditure of effort). However, it's not possible for me to argue with success (your success). So I will argue for failure (not yours):
I personally for young people encourage stock market failure. The quicker and more severe the better.
For example regarding biotechs. Standing back, it's pretty straightforward to see that it's a complicated, risky business, wherein the cash in the till of some of these companies gets burned up real fast. At least one other chap - besides Dr. Burry - has posted here within past few days and has an MD. THEY do not recommend biotechs or THEY are very cautious about them. So where's the edge for us "civilian" investors or even speculators. It ain't there. So the smart thing to do is draw that Circle of Competence (idea ala Klarman? Buffett?) and exclude this area from your indvidual stock purchases. HOWEVER, the only way to really KNOW this and DO this (exclude biotechs) is IMO to buy or speculate on a few "good" biotechs and lose heavy and lose hard. That's how the stock market learning finally gets internalized for most of us.
Of course these are my opinions only. If you've had great success or have relative success over a long period...my hat's off to you. (I want to say you're very lucky; Hulbert may say it's not just luck.)
Paul Senior |
