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Strategies & Market Trends : Items affecting stock market picks
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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (2003)5/27/2011 8:28:27 PM
From: russet  Read Replies (1) of 8262
 
ROSENBERG: THE 7 MAJOR RISKS BREWING

25 May 2011 by Cullen Roche

Just in case you were worried that David Rosenberg had turned all bright and happy with regards to the US equity markets – he brings us his 7 major risks brewing:

pragcap.com

¦China hard landing (PMI down to 51, perilously close to contraction mode)…equity market may have begun to price in some probability of such.
¦Contagion sovereign credit risks in Europe (the rating agencies have already begun to take action against Spain, Italy and Belgium).
¦Countertrend rally in the US dollar – this is crushing the risk-on carry trades: the unwinding of net speculative short positions in the dollar and long positions in the Euro seem to have further to go based on the latest CFTC data.
¦Deepening recession in Japan – still one of the world’s largest economies; spill-over on global production schedules still to be felt.
¦US fiscal policy is becoming more radically austere at all levels of government.
¦The end of QE2 will be a very big deal given the 89% correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and the movements in the S&P 500 over the past two years.
¦US leading economic indicators are rolling over. The Conference Board Index fell in April for the first time since June 2010; the coincident-to-lagging indicator is down three months in a row; and the ECRI smoothed index is down now for four straight weeks, a streak last seen in July 2010.
Source: Gluskin Sheff
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