Bruce, you have made several references to seeing stocks dragged
across certain strikes at expiry. I think the current Option OI
implies next Friday's close will be between 17 « and 20.
The converse of the Nov17.5P "put support" on ample display this past
week (IMO) may manifest itself this week in the form of Nov20C "call
resistance".
Reported CQGKD OI for 11/14 was 1688, volume was 335. Monday's
OI #'s will be of particular interest, ie., a corresponding increase in OI could indicate confidence that the stock is not going
significantly higher before next Monday and a decline could indicate
the fear that it will. OI increased (albeit slightly) each of the
previous 3 days.
If the pros were selling calls on Friday and the stock breaks out
early this week, the Nov 20C positions alone would add close to
200K worth of extra fuel for Curly's Fire.
As of Friday, Nov Call OI, 15' = 207, 17.5's = 87, 20's = 1688,
22.5's - 1972, 25's -3614, a total of about 757K, or a whole lotta
covering going on if it gets away from them.
Above that, in the 27.5's, 30's and 32.5's is another 984K.
Of historical interest, the Nov20C reported OI went from 0 to 1532 on
10/23, so 90% of the current Nov20C OI was put on the day before the
earnings release (10/22). Hmmm.
I'll put the data tables on the next post.
Duane |
