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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Ibexx who wrote (9838)11/16/1997 4:29:00 PM
From: Stingray  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Results from the S+P 500 forecasting site you gave the link to. So far the predictive value of this site has been zero, but interesting nonetheless. They only seem to have about 10 different predictions and the algorithm has not yet figured that we are in a period of high volatility and is still giving low probabilities to swings of more than 1%. The columns on the chart are the percentage probabilities they assigned to a loss of > 1%, loss of 0-1%, gain of 0-1% and gain of >1% respectively.

Date___<_-1__-1..0__0..1__>_1__Close__%Change
10/20____07_____26____53___14__955.59_+1.21
10/21____12_____24____47___17__972.68_+1.74
10/22____09_____35____45___11__968.49_-0.39
10/23____12_____20____57___11__950.69_-1.84
10/24____07_____26____53___14__941.64_-0.95
10/27____07_____26____53___14__876.99_-6.87
10/28____07_____26____53___14__921.85_+5.12
10/29____12_____18____58___12__919.16_-0.29
10/30____07_____26____53___14__903.68_-1.68
10/31____07_____26____53___14__914.62_+1.21
11/03____12_____24____47___17__938.99_+2.66
11/04____05_____39____49___07__940.34_+0.14
11/05____05_____39____49___07__942.76_+0.21
11/06____05_____39____49___07__938.06_-0.50
11/07____11_____36____47___06__927.51_-1.12
11/10____07_____26____53___14__921.11_-0.69
11/11____12_____20____57___11__923.60_+0.27
11/12____06_____21____54___19__905.93_-1.93
11/13____07_____26____53___14__916.65_+1.18
11/14____12_____24____47___17__928.35_+1.28
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