Thanks to all for your replies. Many very well thought out comments and insights.
Regarding the eggs in one basket (holding all VLNC vs some of VLNC and ULBI), it makes for more risk, but also for more reward as well. I also recall that the ULBI and Mitsubishi contract was exclusive. Is that correct? (I'm staying 100% with VLNC.)
Re: The dominant supplier of cellphone and laptop batteries in 1998. Did Cal actually say that? Pretty bold if he did. If he's correct, we should be very well rewarded as shareholders.
Re: The dismissal of the lawsuit. I totally agree that this news went unnoticed in the securities market, unless it had already been factored in the price before the announcement.
Re: Small float/insider holdings/institutional ownership. There seems to be a lot of institutional interest during the conference calls to only represent 10%. Also, any time you have > 25% insider holdings, it's very positive, IMO. They have a direct interest in the success of the company, financially. The small float of 16M or so, against 23M shares O/S is good, on a rally, bad in a decline (both of which we've seen in the past).
The bottom line, IF Valence can mass produce to OEM specs, then we'll be in the high teens to low 20s right off the bat. Longer term contracts, JVs, GM developments will put us in the 30s. Financial results and longer term maturation will put us in the 50s. Now, the 80s and 100s that Don W. predicts certainly is desirable as a shareholder, but realistically, it seems hard to get to. I'll take it, but need to be slapped in the face a few times when thinking of the possibilities, financially! I mean, $100/share? That would be a market cap of 2.3Billion, not including any debt that they would have at the time, or any additional share issuance they may make. Optimistic, indeed. But, I could figure in retiring if we got there (and IF I held all of the shares I currently have, which would be a BIG IF. I mean, half way there at $50 would make me a very happy, and comfortable investor).
Thanks, again to all for your feedback. Here's looking to another healthy rally at the end of the year. Small caps historically outperform their big brothers from Dec to Jan.
(On a side note, the two syndicated computer nerds in our local paper, Brit Hume [wasn't he a White House advisor?] and TR Reid, reviewed the new Mitsubishi laptop computer, the Amity, this Sunday, and were generally disappointed. One negative they mentioned was the battery power, less than 3 hours. There was no mention of the kind of battery, just that it wasn't long lasting. I'm assuming that the Amity isn't the line receiving the ULBI battery.? Also, I didn't realize that Mitsu made computers. I know they have about a million subsidiaries, but still.)
Good luck to all... |
