SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (38894)6/4/2011 2:14:43 PM
From: yard_man1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 71475
 
Bob Hoye has a theory which is based on too few data points in my mind to be valid, but at least it syncs with what I think about market psychology. 1st drop in the stock indices in a down cycle tend to lead the economy -- but the 2nd decline tends to be more coincident. So I don't buy the market as leading indicator right now. I think Hoyes idea is going to be proved to be correct -- stocks will go down with worsening bad news and may even continue to reject signs of a recovery that may appear in 9 - 12 months if the fiscal and monetary cranking subsides.

I think we have probably started the 2nd leg down -- need a little bit more confirmation. Russell says don't try and trade the news -- but that is not always true -- I think recent data together with the craziest monetary and fiscal stimulus accomplishing so little means the economy is in for more than a rough patch. I think we are getting ready for the real cyclical and structural adjustments that would already be well underway if they hadn't tried to "save housing prices, banks, the PIGS and automakers."

For a sustainable rebound I think people en masse have to hate stocks. To be sure there are some that are staying away -- but I mean really hate them. I'm short and plan on staying that way at least for the next 3-6 months.

Reasonable first target for S&P: 1060.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News