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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARAKIS: HIGH RISK OIL PLAY (AKSEF)
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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (7308)11/16/1997 8:25:00 PM
From: J. M. Burr  Read Replies (1) of 9164
 
DVF: I would be extemely cautious with the claim that Malaysia or China have taken a "neutral" position vis-a-vis the SPLA and the oil fields. I have noted before the activity that China has undertaken in a three-cornered arms trade from Iran to Sudan. And with regard to Malaysia, a Sudanese embassy person in Malaysia has recently defected and in reports published in London maintains that the Government of Sudan has worked with China and Indonesia to obtain arms and the two Asian nations have used Petronas as a cover for their arms shipments to Sudan.

I can find no information -- and I have tried for almost two years -- to determine if, in some way, Arakis has struck a deal with the SPLA; I have found nothing to substantiate the fact aside from some bullshit that McLoed was peddling about 16 months ago. If someone has conflicting information, I would love to hear it because the Arakis-SPLA relationship certainly affects the investment decisions I make. It has been reported that Khan's daughter is married to a powerful member of the Sudanese NIF; secondly, Khan could not have obtained the concession in the first place if he did not have contacts within the Government of Khrtoum. Finally, Khan himself has said in a press interview that he could not be ousted until the pipeline was up and running. In sum, and as I have implied, I am convinced the present consortium will never move a barrel of oil to export because a deal will not be struck with the SPLA. That being said, Arakis is still in a powerful position because it sits on a major oil field; now who will be the lucky bidder to take over the Arakis concession, what price will be paid, and what will happen to China and Malaysia are factors that keep me interested and lead me to bottom-fish with this putrid stock. Tumbleweed.
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