Paul, you make some very good points. The expenditures by Valence are
a good indication of just how serious they are about bringing this product to market. Someone on the ULBI thread made the comment that Valence possibly aren't as serious in their efforts as ULBI because they aren't spending "their own money" (having raised it through an IPO) where as Ultralife is spending money they have earned from battery sales. I sure don't follow that reasoning - hard to picture Valence only making a half-hearted effort based on how they received their funding. I doubt there are many companies as dedicated to the task as Valence is.
I also think the prediction that ULBI will be mass producing 2 - 4 weeks after receiving their line is optimistic. 90% yield is a long way from acceptable performance. Some of the Valence equipment was also pre-tested at the supplier end, yet it's required months of additional work at the N.I. plant. When you're producing thousands of units per day, I'd say the yield had better be in the 99% range.
Finally, it is a lot of fun to speculate on what may happen to the price of the stock in the near term. While I think $25 or $30 is very likely as soon as production is under way, with $50 a good possibility soon after when revenues start to build, I don't think Don Wolanchuk's prediction of $80 - $100 is totally out of the picture. I'm reminded of IOM, which went from around $2 to $55 in less than a year and a half, with several splits inbetween. The P/E reached 260 (!) and of course the price had to come down some. Those who got off at the top did very well, to put it conservatively. If the batteries will be as popular as zip drives, then there is a chance we may see a quick spike to very high levels at some point. I'd rather see steady, supportable appreciation though, because it gets too nerve-vracking when you have to worry about jumping off at some exact point.
Best regards,
- T - |
