<<The only idiocy I read is coming from those who proclaim a new
and protracted Bear market is at hand!>>
Bob,
I would suggest that reconsider your bullish exhuberance. The SE Asia and Latin market meltdowns may have a substantial and sustained impact on the profitability of US firms. S. Korea will likely be the next target for the currency speculators. This will hit Japan as well, create instability on the Korean peninsula (remember Kim Il Jong?) and creating one hell of a lot of concern in *ALL* Asian markets.
Now let me throw a little more defecation into the rotary ocillator.
Y2K.
Globally, we are in the lead when it comes remediating this problem and look at the progress we have made thus far(we're still, for the most part, in the appraisal phase). Now that all of this wealth has basically been destroyed in these economies and the spector of high(hyper?)-inflation, extremely harsh economic austerity measures are evident, the added expenditure of remediating Y2K problems may prove to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
I am in no way as confident about where this market will be in mid-1998 as I had been in July. And you may feel that the market will climb this "wall of worry" and that fear in the market is a positive contrarian sign, but I say that this wall is a little higher and more slippery than those of the past.
The general psychological mood of the market is about to receive a nasty shock in 1998 as corporations begin to adher to the new SEC requirements related to unfunded liabilities brought about by Y2K. They will no longer be able to hide these cost to the extent that they had previously. It WILL impact earnings, and the overall bottom-line and thus will affect analyst projections for 1998.
Bottom line, if we don't break through 8200 on the Dow for a protracted period of time, look out below.
Just the humble opinion of a former SUNW holder who sold for a loss and repositioned the money in KEA.
Regards,
Ron
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