Aggressive New LED Lighting Roadmap Target of 8X Cost Drop by 2015 Counts on Innovation in Manufacturing Technology
By Paula Doe, SEMI Emerging and Adjacent Markets
Getting packaged LED die costs down to the new more aggressive roadmap target of $2.20/klm within five years will take some major innovations in manufacturing technology. Luckily, the manufacturing supply chain is making some major progress.
This year’s roundtable of experts gathered by the U.S. Department of Energy to review its industry roadmap decided last year’s ambitious goal of 10X cost reduction by 2020 in packaged LED die still won’t be enough. They now think an 8X reduction by 2015 will be needed to create a solid state lighting industry that can compete with fluorescents.
Can the industry achieve this aggressive goal of reducing costs from about $18/klm now down to only $2.20/klm within five years? The industry is making good progress in everything from understanding the droop in efficiency at higher currents, to controlling uniformity of epitaxial deposition, to finding and fixing defects, to simplifying packaging by using fewer components. Industry experts will discuss this progress and next key issues at the major steps along the value chain at the HB-LED manufacturing technology program at SEMICON West, July
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Taiwan Boasts World's Largest LED Capacity in 2011; 27 New LED Fabs Going Up In Asia This Year
Demand for Equipment Rising: Heavyweights Converge on LED Manufacturing Section at SEMICON Taiwan
LED application products -- tablet computers, LED TVs and smartphones -- are all the rage, fueling the rapid rise and proliferation of Taiwan-based LED businesses. Corporations such as AU Optronics (AUO), TSMC and CHIMEI have all crossed over into the LED industry, forging yet another trillion-dollar industry in Taiwan. SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast has projected 27 new LED fabs starting operation in the Asia region (excluding Japan) this year. Of these, 17 will be built in China and 7 in Taiwan.
The global application of LCD backlight modules across a broad spectrum, combined with the rapid growth of lighting compliant with new efficiency standards, has generated huge demand on the LED market. During the LED panel discussion at SEMI Taiwan in March, Lin Chi-Hsun, head of the Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center (IEK), Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), shared the outlook of LED market for 2011, “The scale of the high-brightness LED market is expected to reach US$ 14.1 billion, and grow to US$ 18.9 billion by 2015. Markets for LED TV's and LED monitors will continue to grow.” Lin also pointed out that emerging nations in Asia are growing fast, and their share of the market has continued to expand without interruption. South Korea has now taken the helm in the LED-TV backlight market, and China's burgeoning LED capacity and productivity will be the biggest variables influencing market development.
The policies to light up a thousand kilometers of roadway with 100,000 high-powered LED streetlights and ten cities with 10,000 LED streetlamps have clearly shown China's resolve in promoting LED technology on a grand scale. "China is currently the world's largest LCD TV and automotive lighting market, and the world's second largest lighting market," said Lin. A source at Formosa Epitaxy mentioned that China invested close to CNY 30 billion in the LED industry in 2010. Approximately 50% of this investment went to mid and upstream ventures. China may have completed the LED supply chain, but it still relies upon Taiwan imports for most of its key equipment and components.
Looking at production capacity, based on the latest report of SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, global LED capacity will reach 4.39 million wafers per month (in 2-inch equivalents) in 2010. Citing strong demand for LCD backlights as the driving force, SEMI has projected 47% growth in capacity, to approximately 6.46 million wafers per month (in 2-inch equivalents) in 2011. Taiwan is expected to claim the largest capacity this year in terms of LED epitaxial wafers, followed by China, Japan and Korea.
2011 LED Capacity by Region Continues...
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