Hey, Steve, sorry to abandon the fight for so long but duty
calls, etc.
As to saturation, yeah, but 40% saturation in USA is
relative to current technology demand.
By that I mean when you put a certain level of technology into
homes, it will generate demand for a higher level of
technology. I don't mean by numbers, like add more PCs to
homes that already have one or more; I mean add qualitative
function and associated demand.
By analogy, in the 60s you might have said
xx% TV saturation but that wouldn't take proper account of the
penetration of color TVs, which at that time was very low.
It wasn't just a quantitative difference, add 1 TV, when
you bought a color TV; it was a qualitative difference; a
whole new market.
I think the same will occur in the home PC market. The
first PC allows certain things to be done (web surf, word
processing, etc). Future levels will open new doors
we don't understand yet. Like VisiCalc did for the business
PC market in the first place. Probably the very existence
of the mass low-end market will make the next step possible
(analogous to the existence of the BW-TV saturation made
color TVs ecomomically possible).
But the hook will be set, don't you think? That $800 or
$500 or whatever is the camel's nose in the tent. Mark
my words. That camel's butt is a lot bigger<ggg>. With
lot's more features we haven't though of yet! <gggggg>
Regards,
Spots |
