Solar stocks: buy plan, and previous lows:
mid- 2008-
2010 2009
low low
TAN 6.0 4.6
FSLR 99 85
YGE 8.3 2.5
TSL 15 2.8
JKS 8.2 N/A
SPWRA 9.6 19
JASO 4.2 1.6
LDK 5.0 3.7
STP 7.0 5.1
CSIQ 9.0 3.0
HSOL 5.6 2.3
Most of these stocks are now down to the vicinity of their mid-2010 lows. I'm guessing the downturn isn't over, and all of them (except maybe JKS and SPWRA) end up with lower lows in 2011 than 2010. I'm also guessing, absent another global recession, we don't see a return to the 2008-9 lows. So these prices, I think, set the range of probable trough prices in 2011.
Very tentatively, here's my buy plan:
Buy equal-$ increments of FSLR, TSL, YGE, JKS, when/if TAN hits $6, $5.5, and $5. If I end up with 3 increments each (that is, if TAN hits $5), then I sell the highest-cost increment, when I can get out even.
Hold the 2 lowest-cost buys of all 4 companies. Sell this LT position, only if their tier-1 industry position is threatened. |
