...a bird in the hands,da da da...I'll take an earnings story (BIOX) over a potential approval in 3-6 mo anytime in this type of mkt...as I believe I have stated before, the reimbursement issues encompasses a few key issue:
1) MD needs to be compensated---he will get a visit fee PLUS injection fee for first injection, but under Medicare RBRVS system, he presently will not get the visit fee, just the injection fee for the next two-it all adds up in a price fixed Managed care world, so this matters
2) I am hearing that MD will be expected to pay in up to 4 months for product with minimal (2%) discount for earlier payment--although this somewhat ameliorates the issue of MD not having to lay out $$$ ( a positive) it doesnt give him a sharing of profit on the markup of drug (mild negative)
3) Managed care reimbursement/dealing with drug plans like Medco, etc, is still in the works but if past history is a barometer, there will be little in it for MD from the drug markup side--MD best hope is they dont have to lay out $$$, and get a reasonable fee for injection and visit, not much different than what they now get for steroid injection
I think the limited smart money that is watching this one is waiting for the next shoe to fall---rollout PR, early sales #'s, reimbursement/Medicare coding info/managed care news---the stock action reflects at present not a confusion about this but a holding pattern based on no news in the pipeline yet--this is very underfollowed, and if my homework up to now pans out and the story evolves positively from here, look for a very quick move up due to illiquidity anf thirst for earnings power in this mkt....PS dont look for a biotech co to buy back many ( if any) shares--if anything, once this story starts rolling, a secondary to increase float could happen IMHO... |
