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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use
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From: Eva6/17/2011 12:41:40 PM
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update -- trotsky, 12:40:20 06/17/11 Fri
Let's Have a Rumor
Typically when nothing concrete can be offered to calm increasingly panicky markets, we get to hear rumors of 'imminent deals to save Greece' - so also this morning. The same 'rumor card' was played about a week ago already. Yesterday Olli Rehn let it be known that the markets are 'misreading the EU's resolve'. There can be no doubt that the bureaucracy is resolved - after all, it increasingly is engaged in a fight for its own survival. However, Rehn's hubris in asserting that contagion has been averted seems misplaced. It is way too early to make that judgment, especially in view of Spain's bond yields breaking to a new 11 year high yesterday, while the news from Spain become ever more dire. The latest is the realization that bad loans in Spain's banking system have spiked to a 16 year high - in spite of all the extend and pretend measures pursued by the banks to date. Once again, the banks are faced with a 'moving target problem' as the value of mortgage collateral keeps declining.
Eastern Europe has been off people's radar screens of late, but a recent report by Nomura notes that the subsidiaries of Greek banks in countries like Romania and Bulgaria represent a significant chunk of exposure to Greece's travails. The relative serenity of the markets with regards to these countries may not last very long.
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