Don, ECRI keeps a different set of indicators from the Conference Boards Leading Indicators. They share their Weekly Leading Index and the Growth Index each week (see below), but keep several other indices private for their paying clients. I think Kirk follows them. ECRI has been forecasting a global slowdown for about a month now, but not a recession (yet). Here is a recent interview with their chief economist, Lakshman Achuthan:
businesscycle.com
They are pretty expensive--I think it runs around 8,000/year for their cheapest subscription. On the other hand, it is even more expensive to be on the wrong side of Mr. Market.
WLI Rises
Reuters
June 17, 2011
(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly last week, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.8 [two-week high] in the week ended June 10, from 127.6 the previous week, originally reported at 127.7.
The slight rise may be seen as a good sign, after data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank yesterday revealed factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic contracted to a near two year low.
New York's Empire State Survey showed a drop in factory activity the day before.
But, offering a glimmer of hope in the housing market, new building permits unexpectedly rebounded to the highest level since December, and groundbreaking for new homes rose 3.5 percent. First-time applications for state unemployment insurance also fell 16,000 to 414,000.
ECRI's annualized growth rate fell to 3.7 percent [19-week low] from 4.1 percent a week earlier. |
