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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (52563)6/25/2011 1:39:35 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom3 Recommendations  Read Replies (4) of 95616
 
This is the weekly update of the Group and SOXM(SOX) tables in terms or earnings estimates, and price changes.

Very little change this week in earnings estimates or prices. All earnings estimates were down a small amount. Both the Group, SOXM, and SOX prices were up slightly. After several down weeks in a row, it was good to see a small rebound in the prices to stop the slide.

When I started this table on 8/29/08, now approaching 3 years ago, I never expected to keep it going this long. I have kept it going because it has been very instructive in many ways, but never more so than in showing the "disconnect" between earnings estimates and price index values. Anyone who is interested can scan the tables and get a mental picture of the peculiarities of past performance. As an example, let's take 3 points from the past on the SOX side of the table.

  Date      Cur Yr     Nxt Yr     SOX
9/11/09      0.74      12.83     321.24
2/5/10      26.63      33.42     320.01
9/10/10     46.27      48.59     316.57

So over the full year, earnings estimates "went out of sight" and the SOX stayed essentially the same.

Since early August of last year, the SOXM earnings estimates have remained largely unchanged. At that point the SOX was about the 350 mark. Over the past many months, the SOX crept up to a high of 470 in February and now has come back down to the 400 area. This SOX action all with very little change in earnings estimates.





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