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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 22.23-4.5%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (635)11/17/1997 10:13:00 AM
From: FR1  Read Replies (1) of 29970
 
Steve - I tend to agree with ahhaha. It is like this: you are either a short term "quick buck" artist or you are trying to put together a moderately long-term investment. This is not for the quick buck artist. They are better off doing 30-day options on stocks that move wildly.

I read the long article quoted by Harry Sharp (#626). If you read it carefully, you will find it says the following:

1) At Home is overvalued.

2) There are a lot of "over the phone wire" businesses competing with At Home.

3) There are 2 other "over the cable" companies competing with At Home.

Of course the article is highly emotional and as down as you can get on ATHM. It builds up the competing services as if they were going to destroy ATHM overnight.

Here are a few things to consider:

1) We have two methods: through the phone and over the cable.

2) Through the phone wires with compression will get you faster speed but I have never heard or read a knowledgeable analyst that says phone wires will work when you face the real demands of future traffic like real time interactive video. It stands to reason that there are limits to copper wire verses cable. Also, cable is right now carrying your TV programs at the same time - is copper going to do that?

3) There are two other cable competitors to ATHM. Time Warner and US West Media. OK, time to tally up the score: who has the most contracts to run their service over cable (ie rights to internet traffic)? ATHM has WAY more dominance than the other two. This is why everybody is so interested in ATHM. Also the cable operators like TCI own so much of the revenue from ATHM that it would be crazy to think of ever switching.

4) Revenue source. I am really tired of hearing analyst computing out the possible revenue as though the only money available to ATHM is from monthly $35 fees. This means there will be no home business traffic (ATHM is offering web hosting soon with about $100/mo minimum fee) and there will be no high speed access offered to businesses not on the cable line (ATHM offers @WORK which does this now but only has a small number of subscribers) and, of course, there will be no attempt to capitalize on interactive real-time conferencing, etc

I looked at Zack's today and saw nothing but strong buys from their polling of analyists.

In summary, if you want one of the best bets for the comming high bandwidth interactive digital communications market, ATHM has got to be one of the best and that is the reason so many people have bought up the stock. This is proven by the number of people that have bought the stock. The only person that should get out now is the instant quick buck artist.
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