Ariel: Today on CNN "MoneyLine" Lou Dobbs went on record, saying that KKR's $1.8 billion investment in Duracell had almost tripled, and grown to an "astounding" $4.8 billion in only 8 years. Well, for some reason, on my HP 12C calculator that comes out to a return of only 13% per year. Boy, that KKR gang really knows how to print money! Be careful of the "spin doctors". These are the same people that peddle mutual funds that have turned $5,000 into $1 million in only 50 years....or a whopping 11% annual return. It all sounds really big; it sounds amazing; but it isn't. Anyone with a dart board can get 9.3%.
By the same token, you are looking at these AER 1.7 pound or 3.1 pound batteries that deliver 8-10 hours of computing and will cost "only" $199, or $299, or $399, and take 8-10 (or 16-20?) hours to charge. And although they are 1/2 the size of the computer (and 2-3 times the size of the internal lithium-ion batteries), you are fascinated by the achievement they represent. Be careful of the "spin doctors". These AER batteries are ordinary, mundane, and are not amazing at all. They don't offer any unique advantage over lithium batteries. And trust me: Compaq, Apple, HP, DEC, IBM, NEC, AST, Dell, and the gang are not stupid! They can spot an "Edsel" a mile away!
What the world really needs is a 300 Wh (a 20-40 hour notebook battery), that just like a set of Duracell or Energizer batteries costs only $5 or $10, and is used once and then tossed (or recycled). No chargers, no cables, no waiting for it to charge. One that fits inside the computer. One that weighs 1 pound; not 2 or 3 times that. One that has 300 Wh, not 1/2 or 1/3rd of that. One that costs $5 or $10, not $100 or $200 or $300. Something amazing! Something fantastic!
Go to the Mall, go to the cellular store, go see the 4 ounce Motorola StarTAC cellular phone that can fit in your shirt pocket. Go see what true portability and "wearable" electronics is all about. In my humble opinion it will put to rest (once and for all) these dreams and fanstasies that somehow - - - what AER is about to do, is at all relevant or useful. Their products are 10 times the size needed. Their prices are 10 times more than true value would dictate. They are off by a mile.
And please, in November, don't vote for a billionaire because you are assuming that: a) he knows what he's doing, or b) he must be taking a long term view. Even if he made his own money (unlike some of the other billionaires we know - - - who didn't). |
