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Politics : Sioux Nation
DJT 10.35+0.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (211797)6/29/2011 2:16:41 PM
From: Wharf Rat1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 361150
 
OPEC spare capacity, rig count and the big picture
theoildrum.com

good comments..


Immediately prior to the IEA reserves raid announcement on 23rd June, Brent was trading at $110. Today it is back to $109 suggesting that the promise of 18 hours additional expensive supply at some point in the future has done little to impact the big picture - what a surprise!

The blue line shows a 1 year running average. In the past when the oil price has been >$100 for a year it has led to recession. Are we on another collision course with destiny this Fall? The IEA action does at least signal awareness among OECD governments of the risks posed by high oil prices to the economy. But the markets are focussed on Greece today. With little prospect of meaningfully boosting global production, the IEA and OECD governments need to focus much more on energy efficiency and conservation - and in America that means smaller cars:-(
=
As previously discussed, we see a clear inflection point in Global Net Exports (GNE, i.e.Top 33 Net Oil Exporters) in 2005.

Following are what we show for GNE for 2002 to 2010 (oil exporters with net oil exports of 100,000 bpd or more in 2005, which account for 99% plus of global net oil exports):

Note that GNE increased at about 5%/year from 2002 to 2005:

2002: 39.1 mbpd
2003: 41.6
2004: 44.8
2005: 45.5

At the 2002 to 2005 rate of increase, GNE would have been at about 59 mbpd in 2010, but let's look at what actually happened:

2006: 45.5 mbpd?
2007: 44.6
2008: 44.5
2009: 42.3
2010: 42.6

(BP + Minor EIA data, total petroleum liquids)
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