Oil Release From SPR Is QE3 (the timing of this couldnt be missed )
Ashraf Laidi
finance.yahoo.com
The tombstone hasn't even been set yet for the Federal Reserve's financial experiment we've all come to know as "QE2" and at least one strategist says the makings of "QE3" are already underway.
"They got tired of printing money" Ashraf Laidi says "now you've got to pump/print oil."
Laidi, the London-based founder and CEO of his own firm, Intermarket Strategy, says the timing of the 60 million barrel oil release announcement a week ago - the day after Ben Bernanke's bombshell GDP revision - only underscores his point. "Even though the U.S. is releasing 50% of the oil, it is a very Asian, European decision," Laidi argues, saying of the major economies of the world "they are fighting the repercussions of further dollar weakness."
Furthermore, he says "when these guys heard Bernanke speak - because the decision came one day after he spoke and all but said there is going to be QE3 - they said, listen, he downgraded the GDP growth of the U.S., he said there's going to be some disinflation, he said there's going to be higher unemployment, that means there's going to have to be some sort of QE3."
Give it any name you like, but it is clear that there's going to be further easing into the economy, and the affect of that is going to be further weakening of the dollar.
Laidi says even China, which is embroiled in its own currency skirmishes, dodged direct battle against the dollar by subtly saying they are fighting "the symptoms" of a weak dollar, one of which is rising oil prices. "So this really tells us this SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) relase is a form of QE3" and that "the Fed is going to pump liquidity into the economy."
So what does it all mean?
"This is a realitization that the weak dollar is here to stay and one reason why the Euro is holding above $1.40," Laidi says. "We may see some strength in the dollar, but it needs more than risk aversion and bad news in the rest of the world and falling stocks to go up."
He says it's not a blind "sell the dollar" call as much as it is a force that investors will need to reckon with.
Which to me sounds like "don't fight the Fed" with a slight accent.
What do you think? Is oil the new currency in the Fed's efforts to jump start the economy? |
