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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: Barbara Barry who wrote (8293)11/17/1997 3:12:00 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (1) of 18056
 
I noticed that too, Barbara (the emotion).

Lots of upward spikes like this are to be expected from a market that has done nothing but recover from downturns for fifteen years straight. Or possibly even for 23 years. It's a dying brontosaurus--and remember that those things had more than one brain so the reflex twitches can go on a long, long time. They used to say that if you killed a snake it didn't really die until sundown. Just don't get in the way and get whopped by the tail.

Of course my complacency partly results from an eagerness to get my hands on more money to put into BEARX--and BEARX is going to be somewhat cheaper at the end of the day unless things turn around.

I am somewhat disappointed in the market today. I was fully prepared to be bored to death, and I am only somewhat bored.

Am especially interested in the behavior of the 30-year treasury. It remains to be seen if the flight to quality can compete with any selling the Japanese might do. My own recipe for Japan would be simply to print money. Inflate and the hell with it. Let the Yen sink by 25% and let the Japanese admit that they are not as rich as they thought they were ten years ago. Americans endured the unendurable of buying compact cars in the 1980s to replace those chrome-covered dragons that got 12 miles to the gallon.
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