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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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From: AnthonyD7/14/2011 11:29:20 AM
4 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 78634
 
I took the time to mine the data (mainly SEC filings) of large silver producers like BHP (largest silver producing company with the largest reserves), and I found that their production will drop by 90% around 2019. A further 4% drop will occur around 2023. Of course demand can modified the time frame. My findings concurs, in general, with USGS statistics. Since it takes approximately 10 years (according to Jim Rogers)in order to have a mine operational, and no new discoveries have arisen, it appears that a silver shortage lay ahead. Industry consumes apprx. 450 million oz of silver annually with a 2% increase in demand annually. If the silver shortage materializes, the first wave of the shortage will reduce world silver production to 100 million oz per annum. I am not a silver zealot. The above silver fundamentals leads me to favor silver for the long term. There are very good alternatives to silver's industrially, except for some electronics, and particularly for silver batteries which are far superior to the lithium variety for use in electric cars. I think it is important to keep an eye on the silver fundamentals in the coming years. Silver is hyped right now. But there might be something beyond the hype.

With Best Regards,

Anthony
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