Leo, I disagree. The steady stream of minor revisions over the past several weeks hints that PAIR is very likely to surprise on the upside. That would be my bet. By about 3% to 5%. That is enough to attract attention and drive the price up.
However, the question you have to ask is: Has the price already been driven up in anticipation of this? If that is the case, then there can be a sell off, even after a surprise. Look at the price chart. A dramatic upward movment, factoring out the trend of the overall market, would indicate it is overbought in anticipation of a surprise, and therefore likely to decline even on a surprise.
These things are really tough to call, however. For example, even if there is a strong surprise, the company can make comments in its conference call that sour some people and make them flee.
On the whole though, I would probably stay with it until after it announces, given the revisions trend. Or at least stay with it and sell into the rally that is likely to occur right before it announces.
All bets are off, of course, if Brazil goes under or there is some other external shock to the market.
Happy Investing!
Vanni |
