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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: AnthonyD who wrote (43427)	7/19/2011 3:09:23 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 78653

re ABH - we, I had a crack at it first: Message 27392581 Good summary overall. the attraction is that after the sale of hydro assets, the debt is down to ~600M$ - if yiou substract the cash on hand (~300M$), you get ABH almost free and clear. + assets probably below replacement value (management is instinctive is to undervalue assets post bankruptcy) + cyclical upswing possible + very good balance sheet + larger players may want to buy it + asian demand + other value investors have bought at higher prices mostly (3rD avenue, Fairholm) +1.6B$ in NOL available = no taxes for a long time - cyclical industry with bad LT track record - old management in place (partly) - missed earnings last quarter -secular decline in paper business I own quite a bit of ABH. Based on my experience, most post bankruptcy plays work out OK.

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