The coming US dollar crisis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis

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From: westpacific	7/20/2011 6:58:07 AM
	3 Recommendations of 71475

Ten Year Note in relation to the Three Month Discount Rate showing some major signs of stress in the months of May, June and July...panic like. Interesting comment from Das this month on Greece... ``History records that in August 2001, the IMF oversaw a debt exchange for Argentina in an unsuccessful, last ditch effort to avoid default. Indecisive and confused action by European authorities seems doomed to ensure that this restructuring, if it eventuates, will be followed by others and an eventual messy, disorderly and expensive default. The French proposal perpetuates the lack of acknowledgment that Greece has a “solvency” rather than a “liquidity” problem. Like the EFSF whose structure has been criticised as nothing more than a collateralised debt obligation (“CDO”), it uses financial engineering techniques to defer or disguise losses in an unending game of “extend and pretend”. wilmott.com He goes on to say that much of Europe is overindebted. That said the charts of the Euro and Dollar are poised to the inverse; Dollar setting up for a nice longer term uptrend and Euro a downtrend which could last a year or more... Priorty Inflation/Deflation Indicator seems to have finished its historic inflationary blowoff run of 2010 into 2011...and ends on the Monthly Chart in a bearish Falling Three Method candlestick pattern. There is no way in hell the FED can do any printing here in the near term until this situation corrects itself; inflation is off the charts...interesting to note on the Weekly Chart a TRIX crossunder is in play showing a very bearish situation nearer term or deflationary. This confirms a rally in the dollar and moves down in Hard Assets and Stocks in the very near term. Looking at SPX and INDU; watching the slow picture on the Monthly of two key Moving Averages; when they cross and they will; the collapse is going to be a nightmare to stop, that occuring is still a few years out (crisis buy point below 3500, 5500 remains support)...MACD and RSI are reaching overbought again but do still remain bullish for now. The INDU high should be in as it has reached the Dome Roof Overhead Monthly again. GOLD is just griding upward into this thinning wedge that started in 2008, a correction is not far off. Having topped out on it now three times on it. Major support 1366. Total Put/Call Ratio has flipped over to bearish on the SPX Weekly Chart, flipside the Monthly is bullish; times needs to see if the Weekly pulls the Monthly back down into the bearish side. Priorty Indicator has remained bearish since May 2011 as this markets grinds back and forth. --- As for opinion; seems somehow I ask; how are all these indebted governments going to care for the masses and keep sending out the checks to keep them controlled...seems to me they need a good and large war to blame it on and control population a bit. The thing with wars is they can get out of control. I stick by my war call; with large parts of Europe empty by 2016. Enjoy the summer; laugh with your kids and just enjoy life while it is still so good... Market should rally to 1160 in next week first. W

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