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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT)

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To: jay silberman who wrote (800)11/17/1997 7:52:00 PM
From: savolainen  Read Replies (1) of 1998
 
Rockwell hdsl2

Hi Jay,

Believe ROK is good.. and just possibly great news !!!!!...

On the face of it, seems like orctf cut the deal they wanted. Time will tell if it is 50/50 like fujitsu and harris.. but find wording like "jointly develop" and "collaborate" most encouraging. And this is coming from Rockwell...

Believe these guys (orctf and rok/brooktree) have been working together all along, and maybe... orctf just held out for the deal they wanted... and maybe they got it. Same pattern with harris.

Personally, have underestimated the importance of hdsl. This is a big market worldwide, with $ today. Stretching existing copper infrastructure seems to be the name of the game, and it could go a long way. Orctf is becoming an international player. If orctf/rok can "collaborate" and produce cutting edge product with economies of scale, it can only help. Again as with adsl and vdsl, with hdsl (if they get a silicon cut) not only will orctf have equipment revenues, but they get a share of silicon revenues and are thus in a position to leverage control of silicon as required.

and for icing on the cake there is the usa. As Tamir said in the last conference call, although they are not a player now, when hdsl2 arrives it is a whole new ballgame in n. america. Rockwell can't hurt as a partner. Can't help wondering who else might be unannounced. Know it's fujitsu for n. america, but... it's a big world out there.

Pair didn't seem particularly strong today...

Also found it interesting that the immediate goal is not a single chip but "a family of HDSL2 chips". Could bear watching... orctf may be covering their bets on xdsl lite or ...?. Symetrical performance at T-1 speeds might find a market niche. ROK seems interested in playing that game...

All this being said, enthusiasm is for the long term...
short term who knows?: Probably no revenue stream from this stuff til late '98 or early '99..
and that's a ways off yet.

Know you watch the israeli news...
Please post if you run across anything..

Best Wishes
s
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