Skip and Arun, we need more information on this question.
I remember reading that NT has about a $2.3 billion wireless infrastructure business segment (this needs checking, too) but only a very small fraction of that would be timing device spending. (Using Arun's arithmetic on the recent Sprint(?) CDMA contract and the $1500 TRMB cost figure from Motley Fool, timing device budgets come out to only a ratio of $1500/$400,000 for CDMA base stations and associated expenditures, or 3/8 of one percent in this subcategory. And we don't know other company's budgets, or timing needs in other market segments.
So I keep coming back to DATM's 1996 rubidium figures, which indicated an $89 million market, supposedly increasing at a 60% rate. But for TRMB devices, with lower prices but potentially broader applications . . . don't know. There's so much happening out there it's hard to get a handle on without a solid research report. I don't think it's blockbuster numbers for TRMB unless they can sell their device for all kinds of telecommunication infrastructure -- a true paradigm shift. In the meantime, though, it could mean in the neighborhood of 15-20 cents a share or so in a rapidly expanding market. |
