Company, end-2011 manufacturing capacity estimate:
1. LDK Solar Co., Ltd 3,0 GW
2. Sharp Solar 2,8 GW
3. Suntech Power 2,4 GW
4. First Solar Inc. 2,3 GW
5. JA Solar Holdings 2,2 GW
6. Canadian Solar Inc 2,0 GW
7. Trina Solar Limited 1,9 GW
8. Yingli Green Energy 1,7 GW
9. Hanwha SolarOne 1,5 GW
10. Jinko Solar Holding 1,5 GW
solarplaza.com
To that list of bankable companies (are there more?), I'd add:
11. SPWRA 0.9GW
22.2 GW = total capacity of these 11 companies, end-2011.
22 GW = estimated global demand in 2011. Estimates for 2012 are very uncertain, but most guesses are only slightly higher than 2011 demand.
Conclusion: by end-2011, these 11 bankable companies will be able to supply all expected demand. Any further capacity increases in 2012 will create overcapacity, and a probable continuing price war. This will be true, even assuming that all other solar companies aren't able to sell anything. Therefore, these companies will have to radically cut their 2012 capacity expansion plans, or nobody will make any profits. |
