Longer-term, APPL seems to be the big threat. A year ago it looked like AMZN might be a threat but it doesn't seem like they're going anywhere with it.
The more I think about this, the more I believe Netflix has a very strong position that will be very hard to topple - not even Apple will be able to do it.
Here's why: What devices does Apple have to serve up all this content? They have the iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, Macs, the AppleTV and possibly a forthcoming iTV (Apple branded television set). Meanwhile, Netflix is already installed on millions of PS3, Xbox 360, Wii, Blu-ray players and some Internet-connected HDTVs. Not to mention all of those Apple devices!
Apple's solution will never be on those millions of 3rd party devices. They'd have to cede too much control to the companies that make those devices and Apple would never allow it. That much has been proven time and time again.
Now, you could argue that the announcement of such a service from Apple will hit Netflix's stock hard, that much is a near certainty, but it'll bounce back just like it did after Amazon's video foray, among others, once it is clear that Apple will not take substantial share from Netflix.
My prediction is that Apple will control only a small portion of the streaming video market like all the other companies out there do (including Apple itself with the iTunes Music Store).
Am I missing something? |
