<<Do you think IBM's new fab has been included in the estimates?>>
Issue number one is what kind of litho IBM is planning to use. But I am guessing ("GUESSING") that they will want .25um etches in this fab, for 1999 DRAM fabrication. But they could have grander things in mind, considering that the article mentions logic chips, and might want some smaller critical etches, maybe even .13um. At any rate, I'd bet money that they will need 248nm DUV lasers for the critical exposure steps. They sure as heck aren't ordering machines from JMAR, Lucent, Siemens, etc.
Secondly, no, this isn't included in CYMI's estimates. But I think you're missing the real issue. The question is not whether IBM will order Cymer lasers. The question is whether Canon, or SVG, or whoever, will be able to deliver operable steppers on schedule, sufficiently fast to utilize Cymer's ability to produce the laser light source. Neither Cymer nor the end-user (i.e. the chip fabs) seems to be the limiting factor in Cymer's earnings at this point. The bottleneck appears to be the stepper fabs. Unfortunately, Cymer can't sell lasers unless the stepper fabs sell steppers. |
