not much should happen, IMO.
1. a deal will be made sooner or later, before or after deadline. If before, gold falls a bit then proceeds per bull trend. If after, ditto. net, net, net= mostly a nonevent for gold and PMs, with a bullish bias.
2. the gold bull trend might accelerate upon downgrade. but look, ironically, for a flight to safety to USD after downgrade. It is not a pretty thing but not the ugliest of the bunch. Why? because the truly horrible currencies will be hit harder than usd. if USD goes up (seems terribly oversold at the moment), gold might suffer a bit, then keep on gentle bull trend.
3. downgrade therefore might precipitate direness (love that word) in euroland.
my best guess is that all mistakes, all chickens coming to roost, all pipers waiting to be paid, etc., are good for gold. no parabolic move either up or down, just a continuation of bull trend, which is ideal. |
