Sorry about the Canadian misunderstanding. Yeah
I'm a six continent and one South Pacific island
traveller. I've spent 1/2 of my adult life living and
working outside the US.
I'm not in the habit of recommending stock. That way
you can't hate me. However, dear old Rotomola
is my fav to hate because I compete with those
heroes of Schaumburg. They have a pressure packed
sales force. They will say and do anything to get the
business. I do have a grudging respect for their equipment
and R&D. I once bid a medium size job and
went to the presentation. In the lobby was one male, in a
silk suit, and two very gorgeous females. They went in first.
The next hour was one of those manic depression
times. Finally they came out laughing and chummy and
it was my turn. I walked into the room and saw the male
testosterone levels were at critically high levels. I
just smiled and stare these guys in the eyes, stating "I don't
stand a snowballs chance in hell with this proposal".
I know it sounds sexist and I don't mean to be that, but
you had to been there in my shoes to appreciate
the moment. Oddly enough, I won it on technical merit
and specifications. Engineer advantage over slick
sales tactics.
Another time, was on top of Mount Cameroon, in West
Africa. The mountian in the movie 'Tarzan the legend
of Greystoke'. I put in communications for a major
oil company. This particular day was join by another
oil company and Motorola. The particular Rotomola
jerk started badmouthing the equipment I was using
and this oil company rep, turned and snapped 'It's
talking 150 miles and your overpriced junk isn't
talking 50 miles'. The movie company also used
my system, shooting scenes of that movie. Again they
do make some topnotch equipment, it just that
corporate arrogance that is hard to stomach on a
professional level.
They have a history of slow to change to market forces.
The last time was in the late 80's. They are allot like
IBM,' we are gods and we dictate what the world is'
mentality. It get's them in trouble from time to time.
Their lastest display of arrogance is about the the demand
of retailer's stocking more of their phones. I'm not surprised
by that. They'll get burned and then change. Lucent, Nortel
and to some extent Ericsson have embarked on a
flexible platform. The first two could careless who
wins the war between TDMA/CDMA. Ericsson
runs the reverse risk of wedding itself exclusively
to GSM.
The '97 is when PCS rolls out in earnest. It slow
deployment is because the frequency that it
occupies is used by local government, utilities
and private microwave systems. These folks have to
vacant first. The FCC has given them until 1998 to
give it up. In the meantime, the PCS operators are
paying to move them off these frequencies so they
can start service. The problem is manpower and
equipment to move them. So only the very large
markets will come online first. The buzz in my
professional circle is 1st quarter '97. The caveat
is moving these other folks.
Once the PCS ball starts rolling, the competition
between Cellular and PCS when intensify. Look
in your local paper and see the advertisements
for free phones and deals offered now for cellular.
I'm sure you have seen the MCI in the box deal.
Well all that is a precursor to what is going to
happen in the future. We the cunsumer are
going to be assault for the next 3-5 years with
all sorts of pressure deals to switch not only
long distance, but local access services. Look
for one stop shopping offer by the ROBC's and
long distance carrier's. Then if all that isn't enough,
the cable companies are entering the communication
fray. The winners in my opinion are equipment provider's. |
