Trendlines are cool....
Spent the evening drawing trendlines.
Here's what I think I found:
1) APCO
This stock is in a very strong position. I drew a line through the tops made on 7/17,8/1,9/23. Today it closed on this line, with the intraday action soundly breaking through. 5.88 seems like a line of support since 10/20. Yesterday tested that line, and today closed above it. Together with the close on the above mentioned resistence line, it seems APCO is ready for a good move with minimal downside risk at this point.
2) SEEQ
SEEQ has come back in a strong way. Drawing aline from the 7/27 low through all subsequent lows except 10/27 & 10/28, today we bounced off this key support line. This seems to indicate that SEEQ has not broken down technically, and is still firmly in an uptrending channel. There will be some overhead resistence at around 4 to break through. Doug said volume is the key thing at this point, and it seems that that is what will take SEEQ back above 4 and back on it's way to the stratosphere. However, at this point, SEEQ seems back on track.
3) CADE
CADE doesn't look nearly as good as the others I've looked at.
drawing the line connecting the 7/17 & 9/16 lows, CADE tested this line on 11/11, and 11/12, and broke though to the downside on 11/13, forming a resistence line at around 2.94. Doug's 3 day RSI trick will need to pull us above the uptrending line in order to regain the uptrend.
4) DIGL
Tough one to do without a lot of data....
A trendline drawn from 7/14 (when DIGL gapped up) through all the lows except the 10/28 (though the line barely misses it!) we regained support on this line on 11/12, with breakout on 11/13. It seems that DIGL is continuing the strong momentum movement it has been in for months.With a possible support line drawn at around 18, downside risk is minimal given doug's short term projections.
5) RECY
This one was interesting. Recy has made fast move and so high that long standing trends are hard to not have violated. But lets see what we have.
First, an attemmpt at a longstanding resistence line:
3/13/96 -> 4/13/96 -> 9/24/97 -> 9/27/97
In my opinion, we are still testing this line, albeit now as support.
Second, my attempt to draw some trednline for RECY became quite difficult. I ended up drawing about 4 different lines that I saw.
I think my problems stem is that RECY has so quickly broken out and really has had no time to establish a real channel. Unless this breakneck pace for recy continues on therefore creating a new trend for itse;f, we will necessarily have to slow down RECY's growth, and allow it to base/consolidate/accumulate.
However, the thecnical picture of RECY is extremely strong. Management and game plan and fundamentals are extremely strong.
As James has said repeatedly, we've got awinner here!
The charts haven't helped me much here though, except to identify some key lines of support/resistence. At this time, RECY seems to be in no
danger of breaking through key lines os support.
5) ONPT
First thing I notice is that this stock made a high at the end of '93 at around 20. In the following two years, the stock slid to about 1.
Then the stock spent 1 year in a basing pattern.
This year the stock started move out of the two year base pattern. and in a big way.
I drew 1/13,6/17,8/4 as my first trendline. It offers some mild acceleration.
Then I drew the line from 6/4,10/28 lows, to see what it would look like.
Finally I drew a line above the highs during the uptrend to try and create the semblance of a channel.
Finally, I drew a support line from around 7/17 - 10/10.
Overall, it looks like ONPT has been setting itself for a move for a while. Today's action challenge a move to the top channel, as well as breaking out of the resistence line since 7/17.
Tomorrow will be important -- higher close with strong volume should confirm the breakthrough of resistance, though making it support.
Well, I guess that's it for now.
I threw some other trend lines around (last week I was in the process of studing the weekest of the Dow-30 batch and drawing some trendlines to try and help determine a signal to short.
That plan will now be on hold for a while, i hope!
Overall I'd say that all of these stocks look very strong chart wise, except CADE (in the short term). RECY seems to be the most vulnerable in that it has no defined trend or trading pattern, so i'd imagine it might be a bit more volitile in order to sort that out.
APCO seems like a great solid stock moving up towards new highs with strong support in the charts behind it.
ONPT seems a little risky, in that there hasn't been much time to create some firm support. Though a two year basing period is pretty bullish, as i understand it.
well, i did the Dow-30 as well, but am too tired to write it up now. suffice to say, it looked really good, closing over a key resistance line, and two days ago we bounced off a trendline that started in july of 96, which is what started this whole rally in the first place.
techinically speaking, it looks like the dow is gaining strength. But we all know the over picture is cloudy right now....the next few weeks will be very choppy. hell, so will every day, i think.
goodnight all,
-dave |
