i like european time zone, because
i take my cue re macro based on what i try to understand from around the planet, i get to take pulse of the second half of asia markets when i drink my morning coffee, discern the issues of europe before i take my afternoon nap, and then take measure of n.america right around time of afternoon refreshment.
i see
(i) monetarily precious gold is meaninglessly down a smidgeon
(ii) while industrially strategic platinum is up a bit
(iii) even as mass psychology silver is holding steady
makes sense to me, given
(i) the govt must continue spending and borrowing, even as it cannot seriously tax
(ii) the fed must react to the deteriorating economics, and given the govt's inability to raise revenue via taxation, must print as before
(iii) the debt limit debate resolution is mostly meaningless except we now can be certain that the tea party politicians do not have the balls
(iv) in the mean time, let us get back to watching the euro to blow up
(v) china just got the green light from usa to renew effort at the printing press, as can be assured that usa funds should be washing ashore soon enough
(vi) japan, with its rising currency per pressure from beijing, can now buy the usa debt that the new debt limit is authorizing
iow, all is well, as well as before, and the business of govt is to print, print more, then print much more.
risk on
let us see what the knee jerk reactions from europe would be in a few hours, and then, a few more hours, after good meal, tee-up north america.
p.s. after tallying the positions and counting the casualties, i deem that the campaign is going well
(i) Message 27464707 (6 30) bought
- ~7 risk units of pt @ say 1,735
(ii) Message 27476241 (07 07) bought
- ~4 risk units of ag @ say 36.25
(iii) Message 27491321 (07 14) bought
- ~5 risk units of ag @ 38.53
- ~3.5 risk units of pt @ 1,780
- ~18 risk units of au @ 1,582
(iv) Message 27499411 (07 18) executed
- SELL (~2 underlying risk units) wallops of NLY covered Calls, 17.5, Jan 2012 at 0.75
- SELL (~2 underlying risk units) wallops of NLY Puts, 17.5, Jan 2012 at 1.28
- SELL (~2 underlying risk units) wallops of PAAS Calls, 38, Oct 2011 at 1.40
- SELL (~1.5 underlying risk units) wallops of PAAS Puts, 33, Oct 2011 at 2.70
- SELL (~1 underlying risk unit) tranche of MCD Puts, 85, Dec 2011 at 4.10
- SELL (~1 underlying risk unit) tranche of ABX Puts, 48, Oct 2011 at 2.59
overall option position set is down 0.1 risk units (~20% of the option premium collected), and am reasonably confident that
- nly shall recover as the yield curve steepens due to wastrelism back on track
- paas remains worthy
- abx is of course okay
- mcd shall do even better as more must make do with less in n.america, and more shall do with more in china
(v) Message 27515602 (07 25) bought
- ~6.5 risk units of ag @ 40.86
- ~3.5 risk units of pt @ 1,803
on average, paper metals tally to up 1.6%
- ~14 risk units of pt (cost @ 1,762/oz) now @ 1,796
- ~15.5 risk units of ag (cost @ 38.79/oz) now @ 39.30
- ~18 risk units of au (cost @ 1,582/oz) now @ 1,610
so overall wager set since beginning of campaign is up 1.5%, okay for the days of worry-less positioning, and now waiting to either do one final double-up, or to harvest, depending on developments.
i generally start taking profit at anything above 2% for each month a particular campaign position is held, to mineralize excess and solidify surplus.
for the current campaign (say lasting until march 2012) my feeling is i must let pt (pray 2k+) and ag (hope 49+) run, continue to machinate cloud-atm extraction by nly, paas, abx, keep accumulating mcd, and
sell the au (wish 1700-).
overall, my stance, incl physical and rentals, is relatively aggressive for me
3% cash
36% metals
23% equity
39% rentals
meaning if excl rentals, just so
5% cash
58% metals
37% equity
should there be a drubbing of metals, i would double, but would have to leverage.
in summary, i am positioned for fiat money inflation per qe3. i am not ready for diaper debt deflation. |
