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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Nemer who wrote (14687)11/18/1997 7:52:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Morning Commentry- SPZ OEX TB's BELLWETHERS in good times-

SPZ- I will assume a test of 940-42 area on cards, I will go long around that area - 955 will be tested a close above 948-49 will only make this as a resistance.
SOX- watch out if 300 is tested - a close below bodes not good for the techs, I will like to see a close aboce 910 good a base to attack 920 resistane. T Iwill trade long at 300-301 tight stop loss and profits at 308.
TB's - I will expect to see some selling today to 117,30- I will hold on to my assumption that bonds may test the lows of 117,14 before going higher. Strong economic numbers will come in front once 'voltality noise' reduces. TB's selling will probably be good for the market as cash comes in the market. Tandem TB relationship presently skewed is not a good sign- why should TB's be here at this stage of cycle- numbers are strong- I would like TB's to be at 6.15-20 yield and improve in price as data pours in. However TB yield at 6% makes S&P earnings after a volatility discount to 48-50$ that is for 98, once this is accounted in the market or recognition of a real double figure growth we see 1000 a possiblity.

OEX- Nemer is the master- and take cue from his numbers- you can be sure if SPZ and Nemer support shows corelation- his dog will bark. I have achieved tremendous result by tying up with Nemer supports and resistances.
BELLWETHERS- INTC TXN IBM MSFT AMAT- should stay above 80
101 100 132 35 if you see softening with SPZ the break down is for real- if you see these stocks intact it is a pit play- 1/4 to 1/2 down is OK but a across the board strenght and SPZ testing low is classic signal to long.
NEKKEI- Need a double close over 16800 and change- a major trend within a bear market will be decisively broken, this configuration in my experience is very explosive a combo of 'epoch events' and 'test of overhead resistance' . Once Japan turns around other ASEANs drama will be of less consequent. Partially ASEAN selloff is fueled by Japanese bankruptcy threat if that is taken out ASEA flourishes and once stocks are above 16,800 decisively we will have Basle adequacy ratios threat out of the windows.

Bias is strongly long- will short at a break of 935 and will cover at 928.
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