As you say, the existing Apple user base will flock to it, but how many devices do you expect that will be? Whatever the number, it will still be far less than those available to Netflix for the the reasons mentioned previously. Should Netflix take some cues from Apple and redesign their multiple interfaces to be more consistent and easy to use, I think they'll retain the lion's portion of share in this market.
I don't know how many devices might be involved, but it has to be a lot. We've just come through a replacement cycle on televisions, but I think Apple is the one organization that can drive buyers back into the stores. Of course, in this economy, who knows.
I personally think there is a lot Apple could do with the user interface. The NFLX integration into game machines is pretty good, but the maintenance of a "list" as a central jumping off point seems to me to be more oriented toward DVD distribution. More innovative ways of finding content are one thing that could really differentiate an Apple device from NFLX. The list is needed, but more as a memory tool than as the focus of the operation, IMO. The TIVO implementation is lousy IMO, although we use it a lot anyway. But that's probably a limitation imposed by TIVO.
Anyway, one could see an iTunes or AppStore type implementation that provides more flexibility in finding content of interest, as well as the ability to have "season passes" that allow background downloading of programming to a local data store, so that programming can be viewed instantly. I've never understood why TIVO isn't already doing this -- they've got a box with plenty of disk storage just sitting there unused, connected to the Internet. I suspect TIVO's failure to act has more to do with insufficiency of capital than it does anything else; I can't imagine the concept is lost on them.
Apple has also shown no inclination for subscription model pricing, something they'll absolutely have to do if gaining market share is a goal. I, for one, have no interest in paying 99 cents for a TV show or a few bucks per movie when I can pay $10 (or whatever) per month and get unlimited streaming.
But don't you think that is going to change with the iCloud? They have to be thinking about all kinds of content storage.
Due to current time pressures, I'm not that up to speed on any of this stuff. It just seems like a very logical progression to me.
I'll say this much -- if Apple doesn't do something radical, I don't know who else there is that has a shot at unseating NFLX. AMZN's attempt seems half-hearted to me; NFLX is 100% focused on its business, while AMZN has lots of irons in the fire. Apple, OTOH, has the resources to stay on top of everything they've got going.
There is a lot I don't like about Apple, but it is tough to deny the success. I think the people who need to be really sweating are the broadcast networks, which are next in line to see their businesses taken away from them by the Internet -- just as the record companies (selling plastic disks for $15), newspapers (selling print editions) and any number of other middlemen have. Middlemen in the content business seem very vulnerable to me, and really, that's what the networks are today.
It is going to be interesting. I've done well on NFLX, and if the price gets right I may take another run at it. Right now, I'm scared of just about everything, though! |
