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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 375.96-1.8%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (77293)8/6/2011 8:33:05 PM
From: vegetarian2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 217823
 
Good buying oppty in Platinum last week, price within stone's throw of Gold price, remember they were close around 400, and may be 800 and now in 1600's, it seems with that series next oppty would be around ~3200 :-).

With govts cutting rates down to 0 in the west (saw swiss doing it), the defn of risk-free assets will change over time because unless the system goes through a painful reset, the rates are not going back up. I think cash works for a while but will likely be the last asset to get hit as people will realize there is no safety in there. People would be best served using cash to diversify into other assets as and when oppty presents itself.

I think in short term (~1-2 months) Silver dips once again to 33-34 range where it will make a double bottom and start rising again marching back to prev high of 47. S&P and dow will test the resistance at the broken major supports before starting march downwards. Mumbai Sensex has broken major support at the descending triangle formation and headed to 15K. Shanghai composite also testing major support around 2600 which mostly like will give way which would clear path to ~2000. Europe mess is a bit of comedy, S&P has gathered courage to downgrade USA and will be an external forcing function that may be useful to some extent. For Europe such forcing function would need to be in the form of German exit from EU along with a down-grading of French govt bond rating for them to realize/start doing right things, the questions is how late in the game they are willing to take that medicine? Experience shows that one is best off taking antibiotics on first sign of cough infection rather than when it peaks, because in the latter case you get worst of all worlds :-)

Although we are past the stages where natural economic cycles can be allowed to work out, many of the problems we face today are because the central governments have thought that they can use policies to wipe out recessions, stuck in believing in them, and then have the stupidity to implement those thoughts when there has never been a basis for that belief. Now people are scared sh*Tl%$s of recessions and fight them tooth and nail turning them into deflations and depressions. Why not just go through the natural cycles without fighting them, they are necessary for healthy economy.
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