Echo Bay Mines, anyone (anyone) ((anyone))? Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Echo Bay Mines, anyone (anyone) ((anyone))?

ECO 33.56

+1.5%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Roebear who wrote (177)	11/18/1997 10:07:00 AM
From: Alex Burns	Read Replies (1) of 300

>Were we expecting a bounce a few days ago? We wanted a bounce, but we can't seem to get what we want. Also, we hoped the international tensions might cause a spike up the price of gold (POG). But then Pegasus starts going belly up... and ECO gets knocked down with it... If you haven't exited by now, there's no point in selling unless you plan to buy it back at a lower level. But if you're like me, you might miss it when it turns up and not want to risk chasing it... worrying that it's a bull fake move... The downside risk is pretty minimal at this point. It's easy for me to say it's no longer worth worrying about, forget about it, if you can. I know that's impossible. It's natural to agonize over bad trades that turn into long term investments. Unfortunately, too many investors are looking to get out on a bounce. And that'll probably kill the first few rally attempts. Yesterday's price action was probably overreaction to the Pegasus (PGU)debacle. Unfortunately, ECO is considered a high cost gold producer like PGU. ECO announced steps to reduce production costs in the quarterly report. Although ECO appears to have taken the proper steps to survive in a declining price environment, apparently yesterday enough people weren't convinced of it's the ability to do so... I keep meaning to find out what percentage of ECO's revenue comes from mining other than gold. That may give ECO shareholders some comfort level. I like to read Steven Jon Kaplan's "Gold Mining Outlook" for his coverage of recent events: "Sentiment is at an all-time low as analysts are almost unanimously calling for gold to drop to $280 per troy ounce, while investors purchased a total dollar value of more puts than calls on gold mining shares. geocities.com If there's a bounce, will there be significant short covering? Maybe someone with a short position would comment on their price target to the downside. If I were short, I would have been waiting for the POG to test $280. But I would think that the reaction to the PGU news has taken out most of the downside potential. And the expected test of 280 for gold may already be in the current price of the stock. My opinion is that ECO will get back to the 3 - 3.25 in the short term if we can just get one up day this week. Alex

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