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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies

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To: Goldberry who wrote (4166)11/18/1997 11:53:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman  Read Replies (1) of 24935
 
Graham / Crestar Energy

How low is low. I believe there is very minimum downside at current share prices. Shares are selling at deep discount to net asset value.

Shares are weak based upon poor exploritory drilling thus far this year. In the financial end, earnings are terrible. Debt is 2.5X cash flow due to Grad & Walker acquisition. Cash flow should be in the neighborhood of $6.00 for this year, less than 4X share price.

Their reputation is that they are good at doing acquisitions, not so good at the drill bit. They have invested a hugh amount into this year's drilling program and it appears as though much is riding on it, especially over the current and coming quarter.

Crestar is a value play based upon assets and cash flow. Thus, they are a very strong buyout candidate. If they were to be bought out, shares would demand a pretty good premium over current price - my guess is somewhere north of 22%. On the other hand, I anticipate a strong 1998 related to both operations and financial reporting.

Purchase of shares at this time is feasable when factoring downside risk vs upside potential.

Remember, just one man's opinion -- this time it was mine.

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