re shorting LT U.S. Treasuries:
It hasn't worked for the last 2 years (actually, the last 30 years), because interest rates have been falling that entire time. For any trend, the inflection point, the reversal, is always difficult to predict, especially for any long-term trend. We usually guess "the trend remains the trend". And that's usually correct.
But....how much lower can they go, from here? Unless you are proposing negative interest rates for LT Treasuries, it's simple math: a LT range of 2%-16%, now at 2%. Interest rates have almost no room to fall, and a huge potential to rise...and rise...and rise...
There is something wrong with TBT, though. It doesn't do as well as I'd expect, if it accurately tracked rates, even accounting for having to pay some interest. TBT must have some kind of decay (due to contracts expiring and roll-over?). Is there a better vehicle? If not, then I wouldn't want to hold TBT for more than a few months at most.
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