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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 334.36-0.3%Dec 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: marc ultra who wrote (6221)8/13/2011 4:13:27 PM
From: Pigboy  Read Replies (1) of 10065
 
Hi Marc,

<<< March 2009 is an interesting situation I thought a lot about and I personally don't consider it a normal untested bottom situation. I say that because it was looking like a re-run of the 2000-2003 bear where we bottomed in Oct 2002 and then had the spectacular retest in March 2003 from which we doubled. So in 2008 we bottomed in Nov I believe at around 741 looking at that chart and it looked to me we were heading for a very similar retest in March 2009.

Then, as it looked like we were putting in that final retest, we had a final bear raid on the financials by the shorts causing panic and quickly plunging us down to the final bottom of 666 from which we started the massive bull once again doubling as we did off the 2003 retest. So I think that last plunge to 666 was more about the repeal of the uptick rule and CDSs allowing for one last free shot on the short side ruining the retest of the Oct lows. >>>

Also, just for fun, the Nasdaq behaved slightly different. It's low in Nov. 08 was 1295 and then the re-test low in March O9 was 1265. Only 2% off compared to the S&P's 10%. Curiously, the Nasdaq in March 09 never closed below the 08 levels.
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